In short:
Preference voting can decide marginal seats in Victoria by redistributing votes as candidates are eliminated. In close contests, the candidate with the most first preference votes does not always win once preferences are counted.
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Misunderstood Aspect of Victorian Democracy
Preferences are one of the most misunderstood parts of Victoria’s voting system, but the idea is simple. When you vote, you are not just picking one candidate — you are ranking them in order of preference.
You write “1” next to your first choice, “2” next to your second, and keep going until all boxes are filled. If your first choice gets enough votes, your vote stays with them. But if they are knocked out, your vote is transferred to your next preferred candidate.
This process continues until one candidate has more than half the vote. It means your vote can still be counted beyond your first choice, depending on how the count unfolds.
Recent History an Example
Preferences can have a direct impact on election outcomes in Wyndham, and the recent Werribee by-election in February 2025 shows how.
Liberal candidate Steve Murphy received the highest share of first preference votes at 29.0%, narrowly ahead of Labor candidate John Lister on 28.9%. Despite leading on first preferences, Murphy did not secure the seat.
As lower-polling candidates were excluded and their votes redistributed, preferences shifted the result.
After the full count, John Lister won the Two-Candidate Preferred vote, finishing on 50.8% compared to Murphy’s 49.8%.
The result shows how a candidate can lead on first preferences but still lose once preferences are counted, depending on how voters rank the remaining candidates.
Preference Deal Pressures Well Underway
Pressure is already mounting for parties to make their preference positions clear, particularly in Werribee, which is now considered a marginal seat.
Labor is expected to receive preferences from left-leaning parties and independents, including the Greens, Victorian Socialists and Legalise Cannabis Victoria.
On the other side, Family First and One Nation are expected to preference each other before directing preferences to the Liberal Party.
The Liberal Party has not confirmed whether it will strike a deal with One Nation, despite the party’s growing support. That decision could influence the final result.
Deals Might Decide Seats and the Election
The West Party is also emerging as a factor. Building on Paul Hopper’s profile in Werribee, its preference decisions — along with those of independents — could help determine whether Labor or Liberal wins the seat.
In the Werribee by-election, the West Party did not enter into formal preference deals.
While Werribee is the most marginal, broader shifts are also in play across Wyndham.
At the 2022 state election, Labor recorded swings against it of between 9 and 12 per cent in Point Cook, Laverton and Tarneit, adding further weight to how preferences may shape future results.
