The AEC continues to count votes, but Labor MPs are comfortably ahead in key western seats.
The Labor Party appears set to retain its dominant grip across Melbourne’s western suburbs, with sitting members Joanne Ryan (Lalor) and Tim Watts (Gellibrand) currently leading by strong margins in the 2025 federal election.
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While final counting is still underway — including postal and absentee ballots — preliminary figures from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) indicate a continuation of Labor’s hold in these traditionally safe seats, with both candidates recording swings in their favour.
Joanne Ryan on Track to Retain Lalor
In the outer-western seat of Lalor, which includes Werribee, Hoppers Crossing, Tarneit, Truganina and surrounding growth corridors, Labor MP Joanne Ryan leads convincingly over Liberal challenger Mira D’Silva.
With 28 of 33 polling places returned and over 71% of the vote counted, Ryan holds 66.04% of the two-candidate preferred (TCP) vote to D’Silva’s 33.96%, reflecting a 3.25% swing to Labor.
First preference vote breakdown:
Joanne Ryan (Labor): 44.56% (+0.96%)
Mira D’Silva (Liberal): 23.25% (-0.93%)
Owen Parris (Greens): 17.02% (+5.49%)
Jason Oosthuizen (One Nation): 6.85% (+3.13%)
Matthew Emerson (Family First): 4.65% (new)
Aijaz Moinuddin (Independent): 2.22% (-0.54%)
Patrizia Barcatta (Libertarian): 1.45% (new)
The Greens saw a significant boost, jumping more than five points, while minor parties including One Nation and Family First also made gains.
Tim Watts Strengthens Position in Gellibrand
In Gellibrand, which takes in suburbs such as Altona, Williamstown, Footscray, and parts of Point Cook, Labor’s Tim Watts is also on track to return to Canberra with an increased margin.
As of the latest update, 35 of 42 polling places have reported, and with over 93% of the vote counted, Watts leads Liberal candidate Ben Reeson by a margin of 66.08% to 33.92% in the TCP count — a +4.88% swing to Labor.
First preference results:
Tim Watts (Labor): 46.97% (+4.00%)
Ben Reeson (Liberal): 24.55% (-1.50%)
Ponraj Krishna Pandi (Greens): 19.56% (+2.11%)
Stephen Bennett (One Nation): 5.00% (+2.39%)
Jo Garcia (Family First): 3.92% (new)
While Labor’s lead is solid, the Greens have also shown momentum, particularly in inner-urban areas of the seat.
Final Results Pending, But Trend Favourable for Labor
Although counting is still ongoing — particularly for postal and absentee ballots — Labor’s strong two-candidate margins in both electorates suggest comfortable victories are highly likely. The Australian Electoral Commission will confirm official results once all votes have been processed and verified in the coming days.
Both Ryan and Watts have increased their margins compared to 2022, a signal that Labor’s base in the west remains firm. However, the continued rise of the Greens and minor parties suggests an electorate slowly diversifying in its political preferences.
