Labor Faces Reckoning in Werribee By-Election Amid Crime Surge and Public Dissatisfaction

Can Labor hold Werribee amid rising crime and public unrest?

Jacinta Allan Faces First Electoral Test as Werribee Heads to By-Election

Victoria’s political spotlight turns to Werribee as voters prepare for a by-election on February 8, 2025, following the resignation of long-serving Labor MP and former Treasurer Tim Pallas. This election will be Premier Jacinta Allan’s first major electoral test since assuming leadership in September 2023, as her government grapples with declining popularity and growing criticism over its policies, including perceived lax bail laws and rising crime rates.

John Lister is a local school teacher, CFA volunteer, and Labor’s candidate for Werribee.

Tim Pallas formally stepped down on Monday after representing Werribee for 18 years. His departure marks the end of an era for the traditionally safe Labor seat, but declining primary votes for the party and dissatisfaction in Melbourne’s west have raised questions about Labor’s grip on the region.

Werribee By-Election: Labor’s Stronghold Under Threat?

In previous elections, Werribee has been a Labor stronghold. Pallas won comfortably in 2014 with 56.6% of the primary vote, but this slipped to 45.36% in the 2022 state election. During that election, the Liberal Party gained an 8.7% swing, capturing 25.3% of votes. This trend, combined with rising dissatisfaction in the west, has led pollsters to predict a potential swing of up to 10% against Labor in the by-election.

Long-serving controversial Labor MP and former Treasurer Tim Pallas recently resigned.

Labor is fielding John Lister, a local teacher and CFA volunteer, to defend the seat. Lister has already received backing from Premier Allan, who has visited Werribee twice in recent days to show her support. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party and Greens have yet to announce their candidates.

Adding complexity to the race is independent candidate Paul Hopper, who confirmed his intention to contest the by-election. Hopper, a 51-year-old Werribee local and father of four, runs a car dealership and previously garnered 5.9% of votes in the 2022 state election. He has positioned himself as a strong advocate for Melbourne’s west, focusing on issues he says have been overlooked by successive governments.

Paul Hopper Independent for Werribee — Paul Hopper has stated that Labor’s stronghold in the west had led to the region being overlooked, despite its rapidly growing population.

Hopper has criticized delays in building schools in the region, noting they are often completed too late and are undersized to meet the demands of the rapidly growing population. He has also raised concerns about rising cost-of-living pressures, inadequate healthcare, insufficient road infrastructure, and community safety, including an increase in crime.

“I will act solely in the best interests of the people of Wyndham, because the west matters,” Hopper stated, pledging to represent the concerns of local residents in state parliament. His candidacy reflects a growing sentiment of dissatisfaction among voters in Werribee, where longstanding grievances with infrastructure and public services remain unresolved.

Crime and Bail Laws: A Growing Concern

The Victorian government’s approach to crime and bail reform has come under intense scrutiny, particularly in Melbourne’s west, where residents have expressed concerns over public safety. Critics argue that Labor’s bail laws, which many consider too lenient, have contributed to an increase in repeat offending and violent crimes. These concerns are likely to play a significant role in the by-election, with opposition candidates and independents using them as key points of attack against the government.

Knife crime in wyndham — Crime has surged in Wyndham and bail laws are a source of frustration for locals.

Labor’s Declining Popularity

Labor faces this by-election after securing a significant majority under former Premier Daniel Andrews in 2022. However, Andrews’ resignation in 2023 and subsequent leadership changes have coincided with slipping public support for the government. A Resolve Political Monitor poll in November 2024 showed former Liberal leader John Pesutto overtaking Premier Allan as preferred premier before his leadership ended amid controversy.

With Brad Battin now leading the Liberals, the opposition appears more focused, increasing the stakes for Labor in Werribee.

Key Issues in Werribee

Voters in Melbourne’s west face mounting challenges, including overcrowded schools, cost of living pressures, strained healthcare, traffic congestion, and now an alarming rise in crime. These issues are expected to dominate the campaign, with Labor defending its record against mounting criticism and calls for reform.

For Labor, retaining Werribee will be critical not just for its parliamentary majority but as a signal of confidence in Allan’s leadership heading into future elections. With a traditionally safe seat now in question, all eyes will be on Werribee on February 8, as the region prepares to make its voice heard.