In short:
One Nation is yet to announce candidates across Wyndham and Melbourne’s west despite repeated signals it plans to contest the Victorian election. With several marginal outer suburban seats in play, even a modest minor party vote could influence preference flows and reshape key battleground contests.
Major Force Yet to Enter Race
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is still missing in action across Melbourne’s west, despite the party repeatedly signalling it intends to contest November’s Victorian election.
Barely six months out from polling day, the party has yet to announce lower house candidates for the ultra-marginal seats of Werribee, Point Cook, Laverton or Tarneit, nor has it unveiled an upper house ticket for Western Metropolitan Region.
The absence is becoming increasingly notable as both major parties brace for a volatile election shaped by cost-of-living pressures, outer suburban growth and frustration with mainstream politics.
In Melbourne’s west, where Labor margins have tightened sharply in seats like Werribee and Point Cook, even a modest One Nation vote could reshape the electoral equation.
Influence May Decide Seats
Political analysts have increasingly pointed to preference harvesting and vote fragmentation as major risks for Labor in outer suburban seats, particularly if anger over housing, migration, infrastructure and cost-of-living pressures continues to rise.
While One Nation winning a lower house seat in Melbourne’s west remains unlikely, the party could still play kingmaker through preferences or siphon enough votes to contribute to Labor losing key battleground electorates.
That possibility is particularly significant in Werribee, where Labor MP John Lister holds the seat by a razor-thin margin following the February 2025 by-election.
Point Cook and Laverton are also expected to face heightened pressure, while Tarneit continues to experience rapid demographic and political change.
The rise of the West Party has further complicated the electoral picture.
Potential Haven For Political Refugees
The minor party is already threatening to eat into Labor’s traditional outer suburban voter base, while its current reluctance to lock in preference arrangements could also deprive the Liberal Party of a clearer pathway to victory in several marginal seats.
Despite this increasingly fractured political landscape, One Nation’s candidate list across western Melbourne remains blank.
The party has publicly indicated it intends to run Victorian campaigns targeting suburban growth corridors and disaffected voters, but with candidate nominations yet to materialise, questions are emerging over whether the organisation has the local infrastructure needed to seriously contest Melbourne’s west.
Even so, major parties are unlikely to ignore the threat. In tightly contested seats, a few percentage points can decide governments.
